FOMC क्या है
Mkts are already pricing a 90% chance of a 75bp hike- which seems rather high, considering neither of these pieces of data are out yet. We think this is because markets understand the Fed wants to hike 75bp, to make up for the 2-mth intermeeting period between the last FOMC in July.
टैग: FOMC
फेडरल रिजर्व की आसान मुद्रा नीति अपरिवर्तनीय बन रही है, इसलिए एक समझदार निवेश रणनीति अपनाएं
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रविवार को पहली बार बिटकॉइन $ 34,000 से अधिक का विस्फोट हुआ, जो एक रिकॉर्ड-चकनाचूर होने वाली रैली को लम्बा खींच गया .
बिटकॉइन FOMC अपडेट के दो सप्ताह के उच्च स्तर तक चढ़ता है; आगे क्या होगा?
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एक अविश्वसनीय $ 1,300 मूल्य रैली पोस्ट करने के बाद बिटकॉइन ने सुधारात्मक नोट पर नए सप्ताह की शुरुआत की .
MHMarkets：The Fed has an 80% chance of raising rates by 75 points on Thursday
Mohicans Markets | 2022-07-27 17:07
एब्स्ट्रैक्ट：At 02:00 on July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and policy statement. Then at 02:30, Fed Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. Markets are pricing in another 75 basis points of rate hikes this time around, taking the federal funds rate to a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%, in line with Fed officials’ long-term estimate of a “neutral” policy setting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pledge to fight persistently high inflation and policy g
At 02:00 on July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and policy statement. Then at 02:30, Fed Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. Markets FOMC क्या है are pricing in another 75 basis points of rate hikes this time around, taking the federal funds rate to a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%, in line with Fed officials long-term estimate of a “ neutral ” policy setting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pledge to fight persistently high inflation and policy guidance is key.
Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will be key, and if Powell issues hawkish policy guidance, it will evoke a bullish bias for the dollar to break out of the most recent one-week range and above 107.50. Signs of peaking inflation are the only risk for the dollar right now, and it will prevent the Fed from committing to further rate hikes in the future. The Fed can live with a blocked growth outlook, provided inflation is contained.
Given that the Fed will not update its macroeconomic forecasts and dot plots before its September meeting, the outlook for gold could turn even more negative if Powell hints that another 75bps rate hike is possible in September. The U.S. dollar also gradually rose ahead of the Fed meeting on interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index rose back above 107.
After the announcement of the Fed's decision, the market will usher in the second quarter GDP data of the United States this week, and the expectations are not optimistic. The metrics the National Bureau of Economic Research considers in determining the timing of a recession, such as personal income, don't suggest the economy is in a recession, but other recent data suggest the economy is losing momentum fast. The U.S. GDP is expected to grow slightly at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the second quarter, compared with a 1.6% decline in the first quarter, and the U.S. economy in the first half of this year will be the worst during the post-pandemic recovery.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that a recession was not inevitable, but most economic data pointed in the other direction, including last week's dismal U.S. and European PMI data. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, pointed out that Powell's job will be more difficult because of the divergent views within the Fed on how much to raise interest rates. There will still be debate within the Fed because this is the first time the Fed is fully staffed. There is now a debate about speeding up or slowing down the pace of rate hikes. Powell's message will be more complicated given the diversity of internal views. Its wording is also likely to be more ambiguous than at the last meeting, with options reserved for the September meeting.
Financial data and events to focus on today:
20:30 Monthly FOMC क्या है rate of US durable goods orders in June
22:00 US June existing home sales index monthly rate
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories for the FOMC क्या है week from the United States to July 22
22:30 U.S. to July 22 EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week
The next day at 02:00, the FOMC announced the interest rate decision and policy statement
The next day at 02:30, Fed Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference
Bitcoin Trades Above $20,000, Has The Fed Failed Again?
Bitcoin has been moving sideways over the past week in a tight range, but the cryptocurrency might experience volatility as bulls and bears fight over the monthly candle close. The benchmark has been unable to recover its gains from last week and continues to trade in the red over high timeframes.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $20,300 with sideways movement in 24 hours and a 6% loss over the past week. Along with Solana (8%) and Dogecoin (8%), Bitcoin is the worst performer in the crypto top ten by market cap.
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview
In a recent report, trading firm QCP Capital shared some insights about the current market conditions. The crypto sector and other global markets are heavily influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and its monetary policy.
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave his highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech which, as QCP Capital said, was addressed to the markets. The price of Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies was trending upward ahead of the speech, but quickly tumble as Powell turned hawkish.
The trading firm believes the U.S. financial institutions “failed again” with their communication strategy. Rather than provide markets with clarity and a roadmap, the Fed brought more uncertainty and instability.
The financial institution has been trying to slow down inflation in the U.S. dollar, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), by hiking interest rates. The markets have been trying to get ahead of the Fed and priced in their upcoming hikes.
In that sense, after Jackson Hole, QCP Capital claims market participants are pricing a 90% chance of another 75-basis point (bps) hike. This is potentially the continuation of the current bearish scenario for Bitcoin and the crypto market. The trading firm said:
Mkts are already pricing a 90% chance of a 75bp hike- which seems rather high, considering neither of these pieces of data are out yet. We think this is because markets understand the Fed wants to hike 75bp, to make up for the 2-mth intermeeting period between the last FOMC in July.
What To Expect From Bitcoin Heading Into September?
The Fed Chair said that their upcoming interest rate increase will be based on the CPI and the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) indicator, used to measure the number of workers in the U.S. outside of the farming sector. This indicator can be “unpredictable” which adds to the current uncertainty in global markets.
The September NFP and CPI will be critical to determining the upcoming Fed approach. As QCP explained one metric could provide insight into the other trajectory:
We think a sizable Friday NFP miss will force markets to bring pricing back to ~60% into CPI. A CPI Y/Y at least in-line or lower than last month, or another flat or negative M/M print will allow the Fed to downshift to 50bp hikes from Sep onwards.
This will provide some room for more relief in the price of Bitcoin and the crypto market.
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